Bitcoin has been holding above $65,000 for over a month now, and this price level is starting to carry more weight than it seems on the surface. The current structure is no longer just about short-term volatility, but a question about whether the market is building a baseor setting up for one more lower move to as low as $40,000 before any real rally begins.

Another question now is not just where Bitcoin goes next, but how its next move shapes the timeline for an altcoin season.

Analyst Warns Of Bear Case That Could Delay Altcoin Season

Arecent technical analysis from a chartist highlights a less favorable path for Bitcoin, one that could push the price action into another extended leg down.

The analyst describes this setup as a bear case scenario, noting that it is not the expected outcome but still a realistic possibility. In this structure, Bitcoin’s price action first moves higher into a resistance zone around the $78,000 to $82,000 region, where a previous breakdown occurred in late January.

That optimism, however, could be short-lived. The projection shows price failing at that resistance and reversing sharply, leading to a deeper decline that sweeps previous lows and pushes the Bitcoin price below $40,000. According to the analyst, such a move would delay the formation of a macro bottom and push any meaningful altcoin season further out.

There’s also a liquidity zone around a wick low in February. That wick is situated just above $60,000, where the Bitcoin price bottomed on February 6 before being quickly bought back up.

The outlook is that this level still needs to be taken out cleanly before a sustained rally can begin. Without that sweep, upside moves will still be vulnerable to failure.

A quick bottom from current levels would allow capital to rotate sooner into altcoins. A delayed sweep to levels, on the other hand, will keep liquidity tied up in Bitcoin for longer and postpone that rotation.

A Drop Below $40,000 Looks Unlikely

Even with that bearish scenario on the table, the price structure of Bitcoin is still against a sustained breakdown below $40,000. According to the analyst, there is only about a 40% probability that this scenario plays out.

On-chain data is showing strong supportlayers well above the $40,000 price level. For instance, Bitcoin’s realized priceis still around $54,000, and this would act as a support even if Bitcoin were to fall below $60,000 and into the $50,000 range.

Speaking of support, the Bitcoin price has managed to hold above$63,000 since the early February crash, despite macro headwinds like the war in the Middle East, oil prices rising, and multiple predictions of a further bottom below $60,000 andeven some below $50,000over the past two months.

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