Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified following a series of attacks by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard on merchant ships from various countries. On May 4, a Chinese-owned oil tanker was attacked near Al Jaber Port, UAE, resulting in a deck fire. This incident marks the first attack on a Chinese vessel in the region. Additionally, on May 6, CMA CGM's container ship "San Antonio" was attacked, injuring crew members and damaging the vessel.The United States' efforts to escort commercial vessels through the strait have been met with resistance, escalating the situation. According to prediction market Polymarket, the likelihood of the Strait of Hormuz resuming normal navigation before May 15 is just 7%, with a 34% chance by the end of the month.