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j powell next speech - FED Leadership Transition: Powell's Final Press Conference and Wash's Anti-Forecast Agenda

By | 2026-06-10 19:15:32 | 51 min read
Fed news emerged as the U.S. Department of Justice closed its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, paving the way for Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation. Kalshi shows Warsh’s confirmation odds at 84% ahead of May 15. Warsh criticized the Fed’s forward guidance during a hearing, advocating for the elimination of the dot plot and a reduction in FOMC meetings. Analysts warn this shift could disrupt asset pricing, particularly for growth stocks and emerging market currencies. Powell is expected to remain silent on defending forward guidance during his final press conference on April 29, signaling the dawn of a new era for the Fed. The Fear & Greed Index remains volatile as traders prepare for policy uncertainty.CoinMarketCap reports:

Next Wednesday, Powell will take the stage at the press conference to conclude the meeting with a foregone conclusion—keeping interest rates unchanged.

What the market is truly waiting for is not this decision.

j powell next speech - FED Leadership Transition: Powell's Final Press Conference and Wash's Anti-Forecast Agenda

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation into Powell, removing the biggest political obstacle that had blocked Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh. On the prediction market Kalshi, the probability of Warsh being formally confirmed before Powell’s term expires on May 15 jumped from 30% to 84% on the same day.

j powell next speech - FED Leadership Transition: Powell's Final Press Conference and Wash's Anti-Forecast Agenda

In other words, the press conference on April 29 was likely Powell’s final appearance on stage as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Wash needs to remove the base.

On April 21, Walsh appeared before the Senate Banking Committee and said: “Too many Federal Reserve officials, both current and former, are prematurely voicing their opinions on where rates should be at the next meeting, next quarter, or next year.”

The reach of this statement is far greater than any interest rate hike or cut decision.

At the same hearing, he explicitly called for the abolition of the "dot plot"—the chart published quarterly showing the interest rate projections of the 19 FOMC members. He criticized core PCE as a "rough estimate," declared inflation "a choice," and characterized the high inflation of 2021–22 as a policy failure rather than the result of external shocks. Regarding the regular press conferences following each FOMC meeting, he refused to commit to continuing them: "The pursuit of truth is more important than repetition."

He also hinted at the possibility of reducing the number of annual meetings, but did not provide a specific number.

Forward guidance—the system through which the Fed pre-communicates its intended actions to the market—was established by Bernanke after 2008. From calendar-based commitments to conditional promises, and then to post-FOMC press conferences, dot plots, and statements parsed word by word, this framework has quietly become the implicit foundation for global asset pricing over the past 15 years.

Wash said he was going to take down this base.

Powell has already started to step back.

Those who read the FOMC meeting minutes from January and March should have seen something.

On January 28, Powell said: “The Committee is not trying to articulate when or under what criteria it will cut rates.” Compared to his usual forward-looking statements over the past few years, this remark was notably softer. By March 18, he went further—when pressed on whether forward guidance might change, he unusually stated publicly: “There is currently no consensus within the Committee on how to alter our communication approach.”

This is the current chairperson saying: We have discussed this internally.

In plain terms, Powell had already been proactively weakening the binding force of forward guidance before leaving office—not entirely due to Walsh’s agenda, but more like he was intentionally creating space for his successor. Two seemingly divergent paths strangely converged: one gradually fading out in the former chair’s final press conferences, and the other already outlining future plans during the hearing.

The depegging did not begin on the day Wash took office.

This is not just a story about the bond market.

Over the past 15 years, the assumption that the Federal Reserve will inform you in advance of its intended actions has been deeply embedded in the pricing models of nearly every asset class.

The stock market first felt tremors at the valuation level. The ability of high-PE growth stocks to maintain their current multiples depends partly on the future path of discount rates being predictable—when you know where interest rates are headed and where they will go, the discounted cash flow model can produce a credible number. Once Wash’s framework is implemented, this assumption disappears. When the model begins to fluctuate, growth stock valuations prove far more fragile than those of value stocks. This is not a directional interest rate shock, but rather a loss of visibility into the discount rate itself—a disruption with more persistent effects on valuations. The turning point lies in whether Wash provides an alternative framework: if, upon taking office, he announces some form of “data-conditioned scenario guidance,” the compression of growth stock valuations would be significantly less severe than if he remained completely silent.

The fragility of the credit market is more subtle. Corporate refinancing decisions rely on the assumption that “I have a basic understanding of the interest rate path over the next three years.” Once this visibility disappears, credit spreads must compensate for an additional uncertainty premium—yet current spreads are at their tightest level in 25 years, leaving almost no buffer. Once spreads begin to widen from here, the pace will not be slow. The only condition under which this fails is if Walsh’s “no forward guidance” is interpreted by the Senate and the market as merely a minor adjustment in communication style, rather than a systemic shift.

The situation on the exchange rate front is more subtle. Over the past decade, many emerging market central banks have treated the Fed’s forward guidance as a policy benchmark—should this benchmark suddenly become unreadable, calibrating their own exchange rate policies becomes significantly harder, naturally leading to higher currency volatility. During the 2013 “taper tantrum,” currencies of emerging markets with weaker reserves fell by 6%–15% within months. While emerging market foreign exchange reserves have improved since then, global growth expectations are now weaker (the IMF recently lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%), making this time’s growth premium thinner.

The current MOVE Index is approximately 67, below the historical average of 75–80. Implied volatility in the bond market remains at historically low levels, as the market continues to enjoy a certainty premium provided by forward guidance.

During the "Taper Tantrum" year, MOVE exceeded 125 at its peak. Back then, the market panicked over the prospect of QE being scaled back—the direction was known, only the magnitude was changing. This time, the concern is that the very communication framework may disappear, making the source of uncertainty more fundamental. MOVE approaching 75–80 signals that bond markets are moving first; once it breaks above 90, historical data shows that volatility in equities and credit markets will begin to follow.

How to read on the day of the launch event

If Wash is confirmed by the Senate before May 15—currently an 84% probability—April 29 will be Powell’s final appearance before the media as chair. With less than three weeks remaining until May 15, a smooth confirmation process would result in a clean transition: Powell departs, Wash assumes office, with no overlap.

But over these three weeks, the market won’t sit still. Wash’s statements at the hearing were clear enough: the market will reinterpret every word Powell says at his press conference through the lens of Wash’s agenda—not because they are in office simultaneously, but because the market has already begun pricing in that new framework.

He will not comment on Walsh, will not explicitly defend forward guidance, and will not endorse a successor in advance. He will, as always, say, “We make decisions meeting by meeting,” emphasize “data dependence,” and choose the least controversial path on interest rate decisions.

At the start of the press conference, the first to move were Treasury futures—the market was watching for whether his wording on inflation leaned hawkish or dovish, as this would determine the initial policy conditions Wash would inherit. During the Q&A session, reporters were almost certain to press further on, “How do you view the reform of forward guidance?”—and that answer is worth reading word for word.

The more Powell emphasizes the value of forward guidance at press conferences, the more the market expects Walsh to push harder to dismantle it.

The surprise at this launch lies in what wasn’t said.

The next few things to watch

The Senate voting timeline is the first watershed moment. The DOJ’s withdrawal of the case removed Senator Tillis’s biggest obstacle, but his public statements following the withdrawal still leave an information gap. If the Banking Committee approves the nomination in the first week of May, the full Senate is expected to vote between May 11–14—if completed within this window, Wash would assume office on May 15, the day Powell departs; if delayed, Powell would serve as acting chair for one additional press conference, scheduled for June 16–17. The market implications of these two outcomes are starkly different: the former would cause the “no forward guidance” pricing expectation to surge sharply in the second week of May; the latter would dilute and extend this pressure, giving markets additional breathing room.

Wash’s first public statement after confirmation is more important than the confirmation itself. After the transition, the nature of uncertainty will shift—from “who is in charge” to “whether he will actually follow through on what he said during the hearing.” Historically, no major central bank has completely abandoned forward guidance without any alternative framework. The Reserve Bank of Australia also implemented a transition period when it abandoned yield curve control in 2021. If Wash announces some form of “data-dependent, scenario-based guidance,” market shock would be significantly muted; if he truly chooses complete silence, that would mark the official beginning of the “no-signal era.”

The MOVE Index is the most direct observational window. As it moves from 67 toward 75–80, bond markets lead; a breakout above 90 will be followed by increased volatility in equity and credit markets. The magnitude of data shocks between each FOMC meeting is also worth monitoring.

The follow-up actions of global central banks are not tail risks, but variables that require preemptive calibration. Over the past decade, the ECB and the Bank of Japan have treated the Fed’s policy path as a key external reference. Once this reference becomes unreadable, divergences in monetary policies across countries will widen, and the logic of cross-market transmission will become more complex—rising exchange rate volatility is the most underestimated transmission channel in this chain.

The FOMC on June 16–17 is the ultimate verification node. It will likely be Waugh’s first meeting as chair—the first statement without a dot plot, and the first press conference that may alter its format or frequency. All judgments regarding “institutional change” must be reconciled there.

The current market consensus is treating all of this as a personnel matter—waiting until Wash officially takes office. But losing anchor is a process, not a single point in time, and this process has already begun next Wednesday.

Source:Show originalDisclaimer: The information on this page may have been obtained from third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of KuCoin. This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. KuCoin shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information.Investments in digital assets can be risky. Please carefully evaluate the risks of a product and your risk tolerance based on your own financial circumstances. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Risk Disclosure.

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