• Headline inflation rose 0.3% MoM (month-on-month), which is its largest monthly increase since January
  • YoY (year-on-year) also increased to 2.7%, up from May’s 2.4%
  • The Fed is expected to hold rates in July, with a potential cut delayed until September

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) report for June, showing that headline inflation rose 0.3% MoM (month-on-month), which is its largest monthly increase since January. 

When it comes to YoY (year-on-year), it also increased to 2.7% (highest since February), up from May’s 2.4% – driven mainly by shelter, energy, and tariff-influenced goods like appliances and furniture.

cpi june 2025 - June CPI Report: US Inflation Reaches Highest Level Since February

Additionally, core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 0.2% MoM and 2.9% YoY, showing persistent ‘sticky’ inflation in services and housing. It seems tariffs are now starting to reach consumers, but their overall impact remains average for now.

cpi june 2025 - June CPI Report: US Inflation Reaches Highest Level Since February

The Impact: Hopes for a Fed Rate Cut Fading Fast

The Fed is expected to hold rates in July, with a potential cut delayed until September, as higher inflation tempers expectations.

Interestingly, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, …

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