Iran’s threat to target US tech companies escalates tensions in Operation Epic Fury. Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 are at 56% YES, down from 58% last week.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is shifting focus from military to commercial targets, accusing tech firms of supporting US and Israeli actions. The April 30 market remains central, with odds at 56% YES. The December 31 market holds at 66%, suggesting further developments are expected. The March 31 market is nearly irrelevant at 0.1% YES.

Traders are moving $2.16 million in USDC daily, with strong order book depth. The April 30 market needs $78,519 to shift 5 points, showing robust liquidity. A recent 4-point drop at 3:15 PM indicates sensitivity to new data.

Iran’s targeting of tech firms broadens the conflict, increasing the risk of US forces entering Iran. At current odds, a YES share for US forces entering by April 30 pays $1 on a 56￠ investment. The shift to commercial targets raises the risk of conflict expansion.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the Pentagon. Changes in operational language from airstrikes to ground operations would be significant. Secretary of Defense Hegseth’s briefings and any Congressional action on war powers will be crucial.

Markets Impacted

• US forces enter Iran by March 31? — currently 0.1% YES
• US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 55.5% YES
• US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 65.5% YES

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