Garrett Jin, representing the "BTC OG insider whale," asserts that the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is primarily driven by oil, not merely a byproduct of it. Jin argues that the market has not fully accounted for the prolonged nature of the war, which has evolved beyond initial expectations of a brief engagement. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz for over five weeks has led to sustained oil price increases, impacting global markets.Jin suggests that the conflict's duration will continue to influence oil prices, which in turn will affect interest rates, exchange rates, and financial markets. He notes that the probability of a ceasefire remains low, with prediction markets estimating only an 18% chance of resolution by the end of April. Jin emphasizes that each dip in oil prices presents a buying opportunity, as the conflict's longevity aligns with U.S. interests in promoting North American energy.