Toncoin’s [$TON] market activity has slowed sharply in recent sessions, with both price and trading volume extending their downward trajectory. The weakness emerges at a sensitive moment for the asset, which is now approaching a significant token unlock that could further strain already fragile supply-demand conditions.

The price drop comes after a recent network upgrade, which significantly improved $TONperformance, including a tenfold increase in throughput and a sixfold increase in block production speed. Although the upgrade strengthened the chain’s technical foundation, it has yet to result in sustained market confidence or price recovery.

Token unlock pressures market

The token unlock is scheduled for the 23rd of April and carries an estimated value of about $49.37 million, representing roughly 36.58 million $TON, or 1.47% of the circulating supply, according to DeFiLlama.

The Ton Believer Fund will receive the tokens, as it distributes rewards to long-term participants and early supporters.

In principle, such unlocks can reinforce ecosystem alignment by rewarding committed stakeholders. However, the timing of this release coincides with weakening market conditions, raising concerns about its short-term impact on price stability.

Market data shows sentiment remains fragile. Over the past 24 hours, trading volume has declined by 18% to roughly $108 million at press time, reflecting reduced participation across both buyers and sellers.

This drop in liquidity suggests limited absorption capacity in the market. With new supply entering circulation, the imbalance could favor sellers, adding further pressure to a market already down about 3% in recent trading sessions.

Bearish positioning strengthens across indicators

Technical indicators point to growing bearish control.

At the time of writing, the momentum signals showed a death cross formation, where the MACD line in blue has crossed below the signal line in orange, a structure often associated with sustained downside momentum.

Historically, this pattern has preceded extended corrective phases in price, which are ongoing.

Supporting this view, the Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) indicator has also issued a sell signal, with dots forming above price action, a configuration that typically reflects ongoing downward trend conditions.

Risk of a new yearly low increases

From a technical standpoint, $TONis showing signs of vulnerability as it reverses from a diagonal resistance trendline.

Current price action mirrors a previous fractal observed around the 14th of February, when a similar interaction with resistance led to heavy distribution and heightened volatility, followed by a sharp decline. Recent data shows that the market has already distributed more than 93.4 million $TONduring the current move, reinforcing sustained sell-side pressure.

In the near term, price is expected to test a key demand zone defined by horizontal support levels, where buyers could step in and trigger consolidation.

However, if current bearish conditions persist, a breakdown below this zone remains a risk, with $TONpotentially returning to its February 2026 lows.

Final Summary

• $TONprepares for a $49.02 million token unlock amid weakening demand conditions.
• A developing death cross pattern and rising distribution activity heighten downside risk.

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