2026 outlook: Fed dot plot midpoint signals one 25 bps cut
The latest fed dot plot explained by policymakers implies a single 25 bps reduction in 2026 when read at the midpoint of the target range. That interpretation reflects a cautious easing path rather than a pre-commitment.
According to Principal Asset Management, the June 2025 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) median shifted to only one 25 bps cut in 2026, highlighting a slower glide path as inflation proved sticky.