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XRP is entering what analyst Will Taylor (@CryptoinsightUK) describes as a rare momentum reset, with technical conditions now lining up around a potential sharp move higher. In the latest edition of The Weekly Insight, Taylor argues that XRP’s recent downturn may have compressed momentum to an unusual degree just as regulatory and ecosystem narratives begin to reappear.

XRP Momentum Hits Rare Extreme

The core of the setup is XRP’s relative strength index. According to the analyst, previous instances where XRP’s RSI reached oversold territory, or touched the 32 level or lower, have historically marked major lows. This time, the reading fell to around 30, described as the “second lowest RSI reading ever for XRP,” though not quite a full oversold break.

Taylor’s main point is not only the level of the RSI, but the speed of the decline. XRP’s RSI reportedly fell from roughly 91 to 30 in a historically short period, a move the analyst frames as evidence that momentum may have swung too far, too quickly. “The market became too bearish too quickly,” Taylor wrote, adding that this is why he sees a likely case for another leg higher.

That view is tied directly to XRP’s current base. The analyst says XRP is now building from around $1.38, compared with roughly $0.38 before its prior explosive move. If XRP were to repeat a similar percentage expansion to the November 2024 rally, when the asset allegedly moved about 500% within weeks, Taylor says that would imply a move toward roughly $6.50.

The MACD, in Taylor’s reading, strengthens the same argument. The report describes XRP’s MACD as sitting at its lowest reading on record, suggesting that downside momentum has stretched further than in previous cycles. For Taylor, that creates the conditions for a forceful reversal if momentum turns, especially while price continues to hold above the $1.38 area.

The analysis becomes more speculative when Elliott wave theory enters the discussion. The analyst says there is an argument that XRP may be entering wave three of a broader five-wave structure, with a possible target zone between $8 and $12. Taylor cautions that such a scenario is difficult to present without sounding speculative, but argues that major crypto expansions often occur in compressed time windows.

The market setup is also being framed against a possible regulatory catalyst. Taylor cites Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal as saying the Clarity Act appears to be moving forward after an agreement with banks, while also pointing to commentary from Eleanor Terrett that market attention has shifted toward the week starting May 11 as a potential markup window.

For XRP specifically, that timing matters because Ripple has been vocal about the importance of crypto market structure legislation. The analyst also notes recent criticism from Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson, who has suggested that the Clarity Act is being advanced in a way that could primarily benefit XRP rather than the broader market. Taylor does not fully endorse that view, but says the dispute highlights how significant the bill could become if it advances.

At press time, XRP traded at $1.4155.

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