An Iranian missile broke apart midair over Haifa, overcoming Israeli defenses and resulting in four civilian deaths. The “Iranian regime fall by June 30” market is at 13.5% YES, up slightly from 12% yesterday.

The missile’s evasion of Israeli defenses highlights Iran’s military capability, which dampens prospects for a regime collapse. Despite a small uptick in odds, the market remains below the 20% YES seen a week ago, reflecting skepticism about an imminent regime fall.

? Key Moments of the Match