Gulf disruption reroutes oil trade, strategy adds $1 billion in Bitcoin, shorts get cornered
Original author: Talha Chaudhry, 1KONTO
Peggy, BlockBeats
Editor’s Note: Beneath a series of seemingly positive signals, the market is exhibiting an inconsistent structure: equities are rising, oil prices are falling, and inflation expectations are cooling, prompting investors to once again bet on the narrative that “conflict is contained” and “policy is shifting.” However, when viewed over a longer horizon, deeper tensions remain unresolved.
On one hand, capital is actively overlooking short-term uncertainties, focusing instead on potential policy easing and technological cycles, particularly AI; on the other hand, structural shocks from energy supply, global supply chains, and geopolitical dynamics are quietly reshaping the long-term trajectory of demand and prices.
This split is also reflected across different markets: stocks are pricing in an anticipated solution, while commodities and macro variables continue to reflect unresolved issues.
As the gap between narrative and reality continues to widen, the real risk often lies not in the variables already discussed, but in those selectively ignored by the market.
The following is the original text:
Market Brief
Digital asset market
From April 6 to 12, Strategy acquired 13,927 bitcoins for approximately $1 billion, at an average purchase price of $71,902 per BTC, bringing its total holdings to 780,897 BTC. The cumulative cost of these bitcoins amounts to $59.02 billion, with an average holding cost of $75,577, leaving a gap of 19,103 BTC to reach its target of 800,000.
The funds for this purchase came from the company’s sale of 10 million shares of its Stretch Perpetual Preferred Stock (STRC) via an At-The-Market (ATM) offering, during which no STRF, STRK, STRD, or MSTR were sold. Notably, following the regulatory changes in March, the issuance volume of STRC reached one of its highest levels on record.
This occurred as the company disclosed a $14.46 billion unrealized loss on digital assets for the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $786 million for the week, with Bitcoin’s price briefly surpassing $70,000 before retreating to around $71,000 amid heightened geopolitical tensions triggered by failed weekend negotiations and the announcement of a maritime blockade on April 13.
Macroeconomics
A noticeable surge in crude oil tankers heading toward the U.S. Gulf Coast indicates that global oil trade is rapidly restructuring in response to the impact of the Middle East situation. Shipping and data analytics firms note that the number of vessels now arriving in the U.S. to load crude and transfer it to Europe and Asia—markets facing supply shortages—is significantly above normal levels.
As transportation through the Strait of Hormuz becomes restricted and hundreds of energy-related vessels queue up for loading, buyers are shifting their supply chains toward the United States, even if it means taking longer routes around Africa. This shift further reinforces the United States’ role as the marginal supplier and emergency stabilizer in the global energy system.
Some comments view this trend as a shift in the geopolitical landscape—reducing Iran’s leverage—while also highlighting a story of logistics and production capacity, including the expansion of Gulf Coast port access. However, underlying this are broader macroeconomic trade-offs: on one hand, increased U.S. exports help alleviate global oil price spikes and improve external balances; on the other, domestic consumers still face rising gasoline prices. Even as the U.S. has become a net oil exporter and is more resilient to past oil shocks, this remains a potential political and economic growth risk.
Stock market
U.S. stocks rose for a second consecutive trading day, as investors chose to “ignore risk” amid escalating geopolitical uncertainty, betting instead on optimistic expectations of a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran. The S&P 500 increased 1.18%, just about 1% away from its 52-week high; the Dow rose 0.66%; and the Nasdaq gained 1.96%, led by technology stocks, with Oracle, NVIDIA, and Palantir Technologies posting strong performances.
Market sentiment was also boosted by the March Producer Price Index (PPI) coming in below expectations. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped significantly, with WTI falling approximately 7% and Brent crude declining about 4%.
Financial performance diverged: Wells Fargo's stock declined due to disappointing earnings, while JPMorgan Chase, despite exceeding profit expectations, saw a slight dip due to lowered guidance on net interest income.
Additionally, rumors circulated that United Airlines and American Airlines were merging, but the deal was expected to face strict antitrust scrutiny, despite both companies' stock prices rising.
NVIDIA continued its strong upward momentum, driven by sustained demand for AI chips, the release of the open-source "Ising" quantum model, and ongoing increased capital expenditures by major tech companies; the company also denied rumors of acquisitions involving PC manufacturers.
The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he is confident that core inflation will continue to decline this year, providing the Federal Reserve with room to cut interest rates. However, he also acknowledged that it would be reasonable for policymakers to wait for clearer signals on the economic impact of the Iran conflict before acting.
Data shows that overall inflation rose 0.9% month-over-month in March, with producer prices up 0.5%, primarily driven by energy; however, core inflation remained notably muted, at just 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. He noted that the decline in U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices following the ceasefire indicates that inflation expectations are cooling.
The Federal Reserve currently leans toward maintaining interest rates unchanged, while political uncertainty is rising: Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, and Kevin Warsh’s confirmation may be delayed due to an investigation involving Senator Thom Tillis into cost overruns at the Federal Reserve building.
Geopolitics
The United States and Iran are attempting to arrange a second round of peace talks within days, possibly returning to Pakistan, with the goal of making progress before the current ceasefire agreement expires next week. Iran is also considering a temporary suspension of transit through the Strait of Hormuz to ease tensions.
Although the Islamabad talks yielded no substantive outcomes, diplomacy continues to advance. The United States has begun enforcing a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, restricting Iran’s oil exports and warning that it will intercept or reroute vessels linked to Iranian ports, while allowing neutral vessels to pass. Optimism over the prospects of an agreement has led to a decline in oil prices and a rise in stock markets.
The conflict has damaged regional energy infrastructure, disrupted global supply chains, and driven up fuel costs. The International Energy Agency has warned that global oil demand could see its first annual decline since 2020. Meanwhile, Switzerland has offered diplomatic support, Israel continues its operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and significant differences remain between the U.S. and Iran on nuclear issues—the U.S. has proposed a long-term suspension plan, while Iran favors a shorter timeframe.
Our perspective
Negative funding rates, rather than $76,000, may be the true bottom signal for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's resistance near $76,000 may not be as significant as the market assumes; more noteworthy is the off-chain structure: the derivatives market has recorded negative funding rates for 46 consecutive days, indicating that traders have been consistently paying to short. This is extremely rare in a market that typically exhibits a bullish structure.
The last time sentiment was this one-sided was after the FTX collapse, when extreme pessimism strongly coincided with the cycle bottom. Of course, this does not mean history will simply repeat itself—macroeconomic conditions, regulation, and liquidity factors continue to influence the market. But it is clear that short positions are now significantly crowded.
The real risk may not lie in further declines, but rather in the fact that even a mild positive catalyst could force short sellers to cover their positions in a low-liquidity environment, triggering a sharp upward repricing.
The Gulf shock may fade, but some oil demand could disappear permanently.
Markets often view demand destruction as a temporary phenomenon, but historical experience shows that sharp supply shocks frequently leave lasting impacts.
When price spikes coincide with supply shortages, airlines phase out inefficient aircraft, industrial users adjust production processes, households and businesses change consumption habits, and governments accelerate energy diversification. These "passive savings" often evolve into "structural demand reduction."
This introduces a critical second-order risk: when supply in the Gulf region recovers, the pace of supply restoration may outpace demand recovery. At that point, the relief in the spot market could translate into repricing in financial markets—narrowing spreads, rising inventories, and declining refining margins—while producers will realize that some of the demand accumulated during the crisis has disappeared permanently.
The key supply chain repatriation is no longer testing slogans, but execution.
The reshoring of supply chains around electrification, defense, and advanced manufacturing is accelerating, but urgency alone cannot solve the problem.
Critical processes such as rare earth processing, key metals, and magnet manufacturing remain highly concentrated in China, exposing Western supply chains to vulnerability at a time when strategic dependence is unacceptable. Initiatives like USA Rare Earth establishing processing capabilities in France and advancing production capacity in Oklahoma demonstrate a clear direction; government involvement also signals that "reshoring" is shifting from a cost issue to one of security and resilience.
But the real challenge lies in execution: approval efficiency, long-term financing, a skilled workforce, and stable downstream demand are all essential. If these foundational conditions do not advance in sync, supply chain reshoring risks remaining a high-cost strategic vision rather than becoming a truly viable industrial capability.
Wishing you smooth trading
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