When Gary Gensler left the US Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2025, Bitcoin was trending higher, and many expected a more favorable regulatory backdrop to drive further upside. Instead, BTC has fallen sharply to a zone that complicates a once-popular narrative that regulation, or Gensler specifically, was the primary force holding the market back.

Bitcoin’s Price May Be Saying More About Markets Than Regulators

The market reaction to regulatory change hasn’t played out the way many expected. Analyst Benjamin Cowen has mentioned on X that when Gary Gensler stepped down from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2025, Bitcoin was trading around $109,000. Today, it sits closer to $75,000.

Cowen argues that one major reason the crypto markets have suffered is that market participants started to lose faith in the industry itself. After Gensler left, it essentially just opened the floodgates to the grift age of crypto. 

During the period, the influencers and politicians were launching memecoins and rug-pulling their followers every day, without fear of any repercussions. This led to a massive misallocation of capital, with liquidity flowing into speculative assets instead of strengthening the broader ecosystem.

While people celebrated Gensler’s exit, it marked a turning point in the industry, with BTC only marginally going higher before entering a bear market. According to Cowen, now that some people are celebrating Jerome Powell’s removal as chair of the Federal Reserve, it is a sign that history could repeat itself. They celebrated it in the short term, which will mark a turning point in credibility for the Fed in a few years.

If the Fed becomes another cabinet within the executive branch, it may lead to a lack of trust in the institution. In a few years, participants will realize that markets were better off with Powell than without him.

Liquidity Sweeps Into FOMC Are Becoming A Familiar Setup

Bitcoin has shown a consistent pattern around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and it’s not bullish in the short term. A crypto trader known as Max Trades highlighted that following the last seven FOMC meetings, BTC dropped sharply after each decision.

What makes the current setup notable is how closely it mirrors the conditions seen before the March meeting. Back then, price rallied into the event, repeatedly sweeping local highs while building a large pool of liquidity below. That structure marked the local top, followed by a 13% correction that erased most of the prior move.

Heading into the current interest rate decision, these factors are in place, with BTC price trading just below a major higher-timeframe resistance level, adding another layer of confluence to the downside scenario. However, if this same scenario plays out similarly, the BTC price could point to the formation of another local top around this event.

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