Kevin Warsh’s bid for Fed Chair faces opposition from Senator Thom Tillis, who ties the CFTC probe to the $2.5 billion Fed headquarters renovation. Tillis insists the investigation into Powell must be completed before Warsh can be considered. A crypto investor with a $200 million net worth, Warsh will appear before the Senate Banking Committee on April 21. His confirmation could influence risk-on assets, including crypto markets. With only 24 days remaining in Powell’s term, the delay risks policy instability.

Article by Xiao Bing, Shenchao TechFlow

Intro: Kevin Warsh, with a net worth exceeding $200 million and an investor in Polymarket, is just 30 days and one crucial vote away from leading the Federal Reserve.

Next Monday, April 21 at 10:00 AM, Washington.

Kevin Warsh will appear before the Senate Banking Committee for questioning. If all goes as planned, he will become the first chair in Federal Reserve history to have publicly invested in Polymarket, Solana, and a Bitcoin Lightning Network startup.

But things won't go smoothly.

In this hearing room, one of the 13 Republican commissioners has already publicly declared that he will vote no, regardless of what Warsh says. His name is Thom Tillis, Republican Senator from North Carolina.

His objection has nothing to do with Warsh himself; he opposes it because the Department of Justice is still investigating current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

The investigation was triggered by renovation costs for a building.

$2.5 billion renovation case: A precise strike against the Federal Reserve's independence

The story begins in 2025.

The renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters building significantly exceeded its budget, ultimately costing approximately $2.5 billion. Powell testified on this matter before the Senate Banking Committee. Subsequently, U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro launched a criminal investigation, issuing a grand jury subpoena to the Federal Reserve, alleging that Powell may have made misleading statements during his congressional testimony.

Powell’s response was unusually strong. He publicly stated that the true purpose of the investigation was not overspending on renovations, but rather Trump’s retaliation for his refusal to cut interest rates more quickly.

Thillies stood with Powell. The Republican senator, who is set to retire in 2027 and faces no re-election pressure, made a powerful statement: "There is no room for negotiation in protecting the Fed’s independence from political interference or legal intimidation."

His position is clear: he will not vote to approve any Federal Reserve nominee, including Warsh, until the Department of Justice concludes its investigation into Powell.

The Republican Party holds only a narrow 13-to-11 majority on the Senate Banking Committee. Without Tillis’s vote, and with Democrats almost certain to oppose unanimously, Warsh’s nomination cannot advance out of committee.

At the other end of the investigation, prosecutor Pirro remained unyielding. Federal Judge James Boasberg has already dismissed her subpoena, stating in his ruling that "the government has submitted no evidence of fraud," suggesting the primary aim of the investigation appears to be pressuring Powell. Pirro announced her intention to appeal and publicly dismissed Tillis’s obstruction as "white noise."

I don’t know, and I don’t care. I’m following the legal process, and I’m not concerned with what they say.

Three-way stalemate. Warsh is caught in the middle.

Who will be sitting in the chair of the Federal Reserve Chair after May 15?

Powell's term as chair expires on May 15. This is a hard deadline.

However, his term as a Federal Reserve governor does not end until January 2028, meaning that even after his chairmanship concludes, he remains a legal member of the Federal Reserve Board.

Powell has clearly stated: if Warsh is not confirmed by May 15, he will continue to lead the Federal Reserve as "Acting Chair." New York Fed President John Williams publicly supported this position, stating that the Federal Open Market Committee can "operate as usual" without requiring additional voting.

This has created an unprecedented situation: Trump has nominated a new chair, but the former chair refuses to leave, with both parties claiming the right to sit in that chair.

The White House clearly does not want to see this situation continue. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters, "We want Warsh in place as soon as possible." Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, was more optimistic, saying he was "highly confident" Warsh would be confirmed before Powell’s term ends. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott predicted, "The Department of Justice will conclude its investigation in the coming weeks, and Tillis will ultimately vote yes."

But these are all hopes, not facts. The reality is: between the April 21 hearing and May 15, there are only 24 days. Within these 24 days, three steps— the hearing, committee vote, and full Senate vote—must all be completed. Under normal circumstances, this process takes weeks to months.

And today, Tillis told CNN there was no ambiguity: "I won’t spend five minutes questioning Warsh’s qualifications because he is qualified. I will spend five minutes discussing that false investigation, and I will vote no until it’s over."

$192 million in a 69-page document: The wealth landscape of the next Federal Reserve chair

Even as political maneuvering intensified, Warsh submitted a 69-page OGE 278e financial disclosure form on April 14. This document is not only a necessary prerequisite for the confirmation process but also a mirror reflecting the true nature of the potential next Federal Reserve chair.

First, consider the scale. Warsh’s personal assets are estimated to range between $131 million and $209 million, while his wife, Jane Lauder (a member of the Estée Lauder founding family, with an estimated net worth of approximately $1.9 billion according to Forbes), holds additional hundreds of millions in assets. If confirmed, he would become the wealthiest chair in Fed history, far surpassing Powell, previously regarded as the “wealthiest Fed chair,” whose assets are estimated at $19.7 million to $75 million. His core holdings include two investments, each exceeding $50 million, in the Juggernaut Fund LP, linked to Stanley Druckenmiller’s Duquesne family office. Warsh received $10.2 million in consulting fees from Duquesne, $1.55 million from GoldenTree Asset Management, $750,000 from Cerberus Capital, and $750,000 from Brevan Howard—all institutions with deep expertise in crypto and macro trading.

Then comes the more intriguing part: through DCM Investments 10 LLC and the AVF series funds, Warsh holds equity in a series of cryptocurrency and blockchain companies—including Ethereum L2 network Blast, decentralized prediction market Polymarket, Bitcoin Lightning Network payment company Flashnet, Ethereum development platform Tenderly, DeFi investment platform SkyLink, blockchain social networks Arena and DeSo, and crypto-focused investment firm Polychain. He previously invested in Bitwise, which manages a spot Bitcoin ETF.

Under OGE rules, these unmarked positions imply each is worth less than $1,000. The size is minimal, but the signal is very strong.

This is not someone who passively bought a few Bitcoin spot ETFs through a brokerage account; their portfolio actively spans the entire crypto ecosystem—from Layer 1 to Layer 2, DeFi to prediction markets, payment infrastructure to developer tools—systematically investing in over a dozen cutting-edge projects. Every sector they’ve touched is precisely where the Federal Reserve’s regulatory and monetary policy decisions have the most direct impact.

Warsh has committed to liquidating all assets that may present a conflict of interest upon confirmation. OGE-certified officer Heather Jones confirmed that, after completing the liquidation, he will be in compliance with the Ethics in Government Act.

But the issue isn’t whether he will sell these positions. The question is: what does it mean for someone with such deep understanding of crypto infrastructure to hold the position of Federal Reserve Chair?

Two paths, two worlds

The market is currently facing a classic binary game.

Path A: Pirro withdraws the investigation, Tillis switches to a yes vote, and Warsh assumes office in mid-May.

This is the scenario the White House is betting on. Scott Bessent publicly stated, "Let’s wait for the new chair, Warsh, to lead the next rate-cutting cycle," suggesting that Warsh may move quickly to cut rates upon taking office. Although Warsh has historically been hawkish—he warned of inflation risks during the 2008 financial crisis even as the economy contracted—recent signals indicate he now leans toward supporting rate cuts. For the crypto market, a Fed chair who understands the crypto ecosystem and favors easing liquidity represents the most favorable combination imaginable.

Path B: Pirro insists on appealing, Tillis holds firm, and Powell continues to lead as acting chair.

This is a scenario fraught with uncertainty. Powell has clearly stated he will not leave the Federal Reserve Board before the investigation concludes. If he continues to chair FOMC meetings and set interest rate policy in an acting capacity, Trump would be facing a Fed chair who is "officially out of office but still in control." This constitutional-level dispute over the Fed’s independence may ultimately be resolved by the Supreme Court, which has not yet ruled on whether Trump has the authority to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

For the market, Path B implies ongoing uncertainty. The direction of monetary policy will depend on the outcome of a legal tug-of-war, the timeline of which no one can predict.

What does this have to do with Bitcoin? Everything.

On the surface, this appears to be a Washington power struggle over Federal Reserve appointments. But for those in the crypto market, every variable directly points to asset prices.

Interest rate path. Warsh's appointment signals heightened expectations for rate cuts. Bessent has already publicly called for "Warsh to lead the next cycle." Rate cuts are a clear tailwind for risk assets. If Powell continues as acting chair, he is likely to maintain a "pause" stance amid inflation risks from a potential Iran-Israel war, delaying rate cuts until late this year or even later.

Regulatory signal. The impact on the crypto regulatory environment would be vastly different between a Fed chair who invested in Polymarket, Tenderly, and Polychain, and a Jerome Powell who once publicly stated, "If I were the government, I would shut down cryptocurrency." Warsh has referred to Bitcoin as "the good cop of policy," arguing that Bitcoin’s price can tell policymakers when they’re getting it right and when they’re getting it wrong. This conceptual framework suggests he is unlikely to support hostile regulation of the crypto industry.

Stablecoin legislation. Warsh’s confirmation timeline closely aligns with the window for stablecoin legislation currently advancing in Congress. A pro-crypto Fed chair could significantly accelerate this process.

Next Monday’s hearing, Tillis will likely spend his entire five-minute questioning time not asking Warsh a single question about monetary policy, but instead launching an all-out attack on Pirro’s investigation. This moment alone will become a headline across global financial media.

The real suspense isn't at the hearing—it's whether Pirro will withdraw the investigation before May 15. What is Tillis’s bottom line? If neither side backs down, will Trump directly intervene in the Department of Justice?

There are 30 days left until Powell’s term ends. Thirty days from now, who sits in the chair of the Federal Reserve Chair will redefine the rules of global capital markets for the second half of 2026.

For the crypto market, these 30 days may carry more weight than any FOMC meeting.