The S&P 500 to gold ratio has fallen to 1.45, a level previously observed before major market crashes in 1929, 1973, and 2008. Analyst Benjamin Cowen warns that this could signal a shift toward a gold-led economic cycle, with certain altcoins potentially facing devaluation. He also notes that the fear and greed index may reflect increasing market anxiety. Cowen predicts that gold could reach a peak in Q1-Q2 2026, followed by a correction in Q3-Q4, with cryptocurrencies likely following a similar trend.

Author:Alan Chen

An overlooked number

If your investment portfolio includes U.S. stocks, gold, Bitcoin, or altcoins, the following number might change the way you view these assets.

The S&P 500 divided by the price of gold (SPX:GOLD) is currently at 1.45.

Most people don't care about this number. After all, the stock market is still hitting new highs, the numbers in accounts are still rising, and Bitcoin is lingering at high levels. Who would care about how the calculation works with gold?

But Benjamin Cowen cares. He recently released two consecutive videos specifically analyzing this ratio and its impact on the entire cycle of stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies. His conclusion is straightforward:We are standing at an extremely dangerous historical inflection point, and this inflection point will determine what assets you hold in the next 2-3 years.

Why? Because the number 1.45 has appeared three times in financial history, and each time, unpleasant events followed. More importantly, Cowen, based on historical patterns of midterm election years, provided a clear timeline:

• First half of 2026 (Q1-Q2):Gold may be peaking.
• Second half of 2026 (Q3-Q4):Gold undergoes a significant correction, cryptocurrencies follow to hit bottom.
• 2027-2028:A new cycle has begun. This correction lays the foundation for the next major upward trend.

But before this schedule arrives, there is a more pressing reality: from 2021 to now, the S&P 500 has hit new highs on a nominal basis. However, if you divide it by the price of gold, this ratio has fallen from 2.7 to 1.45. To put it another way:Over the past four years, the S&P 500 index, measured in gold, has fallen by 46%.

Your stock account may show profits, but when calculated in terms of gold, you're actually experiencing losses. Your Bitcoin may still be at a high, but it is continuously depreciating relative to gold. This is not a theoretical game—it reflects real changes in the relative value of assets—Cowen refers to it as "The Bleed."

But a more important question is: Will the monthly closing price break below the key level of 1.45? If it does break below, history tells us what is likely to happen next.

Part I: Historical Validation of 1.45

Three appearances, three turning points

The ratio of the S&P 500 to gold has touched or fallen below 1.45 at three significant moments in financial history:

1929:The stock market was rejected at this level, which subsequently triggered the Great Depression.

1973:The stock market rebounded to this level multiple times during the 1960s, but when it broke below it in 1973, a structural shift occurred in the market. This was followed by a 50% correction and a decade-long period of stagflation.

2008:Breaking below 1.45 again, a financial crisis followed.

In "A Deeply Concerning Chart for Stocks," Cowen points out that this is no coincidence. Every time this ratio breaks out around 1.45, it marks the market's transition from a stock-dominated cycle to a gold-dominated cycle.

It's 2026 now, and we're back to 1.45 again.

The "exception" cost in 2020

Some might say, didn't it also reach 1.44 in March 2020? Why didn't it crash back then?

It didn't crash indeed, but what's the cost?

The Federal Reserve printed $6 trillion and cut interest rates to zero, while central banks around the world collectively unleashed massive liquidity. That is not a natural recovery of the market, but a result of artificial intervention.

The current question is: If the 1.45 level breaks again, will the Fed still have the same room and tools to respond? Inflation is not yet fully under control, interest rates remain at high levels, and debt has already reached record highs. The cost of this rescue may be higher, or it may not be feasible at all.

Part II: The rotation was a misjudgment; the bleeding is the reality.

The market won't follow the script you expect.

Many investors believe in a logic: when gold rises too much, it will correct, and then funds will flow back into the stock market, causing the stock market to rise again.

Cowen refuted this view using historical data.

In 1973 and 2008, after the S&P 500/Gold ratio broke out, there was no "capital rotation." In fact:Both the stock market and gold declined, but the stock market fell more sharply.

Cowen's observation is that when the ratio breaks down, capital does not flow from gold to stocks, but rather to cash or other hard assets. Risk appetite declines, and investors choose defense over offense.

The Bleed: The Ongoing Process of Relative Devaluation

Cowen introduced the concept of "The Bleed"—in a gold-dominated cycle, risk assets continuously depreciate relative to gold.

This depreciation is not dependent on whether gold rises or falls:

• If gold rises, stocks may consolidate or lag in their upward movement.
• If gold falls, stocks usually fall even more.

As a result, regardless of how the price of gold fluctuates, the value of stocks relative to gold is declining.

This is exactly the reality of the past four years. The S&P 500 has fallen by 46% in terms of gold. Investors holding stock funds may see paper gains, but those holding gold have achieved higher returns.

Part III: Signs of Recession Are Accumulating

Warning: Hiring Freeze

The unemployment rate is rising. Cowen pointed out a detail that is often overlooked:The rise in unemployment is not only due to layoffs, but also due to companies ceasing to hire new employees.

According to the data he cited, the unemployment rate among young people aged 16 to 19 reached 15.7%, significantly higher than that of other age groups. This means that those newly entering the labor market face greater difficulties. Companies may not necessarily lay off older workers, but they have stopped expanding their hiring.

This is a classic sign of economic slowdown.

Trends in State Data

Currently, the unemployment rate is rising in 27 states. Historically, when all states experience rising unemployment rates, a recession is essentially confirmed. Although we are not there yet, a trend is already emerging.

Cowen uses "climbing the wall of worry" to describe the current state of the market—it appears to still be rising, but the underlying support is weakening.

Part Four: Gold Has Completed a Breakout

Inverted view: Gold/S&P 500

If we invert the chart and look at gold divided by the S&P 500 (Gold / S&P 500), the signal becomes clearer:Gold has completed a breakout against the stock market.

Cowen presented this pattern in "Gold Breaks Out Against Stocks." Gold broke out above its long-term high in 2023, retraced for confirmation in 2024, and began to accelerate upward in 2025.

This is a classic pattern in technical analysis: breakout → pullback → continued rise.

Cowen compared this chart with other assets and found similar patterns emerging in markets such as Bitcoin dominance, palladium, and the Hang Seng Index. This is not an isolated phenomenon, but rather a broad shift in trends.

The pullback in gold has been completed. Following this pattern, it may enter a sustained upward phase next.

The Situation of Shill Coins

The situation is even more challenging for cryptocurrency investors.

Cowen exited altcoin investments in 2022. His reasoning was that altcoins were not only declining against Bitcoin, but also against gold and silver, even hitting new lows.

He emphasized, "Don't marry a particular asset class. Trade the market you face, not the market you want."

Fiat currency holders have experienced multiple devaluations over the past few years: continuously losing value relative to gold, Bitcoin, and even stocks.

Part V: The 2026 Timeline

Mid-term correction in gold

Cowen studied the historical performance in midterm election years (2014, 2018, 2022), and found that gold typically follows a pattern:

Peaked in the first half of the year:Peak in early Q1 or Q2

Second-half adjustment:A significant pullback occurs in Q3 or Q4.

Lay the foundation for the next cycle.

If this pattern continues to hold true, the path of gold in 2026 may be:

• Q1-Q2: Continue to rise or consolidate at a high level
• Q3-Q4: Major correction, seeking the bottom

Cowen's forecast is: "It may sharply decline in the third quarter, find a low point, and then build from there into 2027-2028."

Cryptocurrency follows gold.

Cowen believes that,Cryptocurrencies only hit their bottom when gold hits its bottom.

This means:

• If gold hits its bottom in Q3/Q4 2026
• Cryptocurrencies will also find their bottom at the same time.
• Then, both will start a new cycle in 2027-2028.

For cryptocurrency investors, this means that the period from now until Q3 of this year may not be the best time to position themselves. The real opportunities will come after the gold correction is complete.

Two Possible Scenarios for the Stock Market

What will happen to the stock market when gold corrects in Q3/Q4?

Based on the "The Bleed" theory, there are two scenarios:

Case A: Gold falls, and the stock market falls even more.

This is the pattern from 1973 and 2008. A 10% correction in gold, and the stock market may correct by 30-50%.

Case B: Gold price falls, stock market consolidates or rises slightly.

This is a relatively mild scenario, but the Gold/SPX ratio will still decline, indicating that gold is still outperforming the stock market.

In any case, the core logic remains unchanged: during a gold-dominated cycle, risk assets continuously depreciate relative to hard assets.

Part Six: What Metrics to Focus On

The monthly closing line is key.

The fluctuations in daily and weekly charts are just noise.The monthly closing price is the true confirmation of the trend.

If the S&P/Gold ratio closes below 1.44 on a monthly basis, it is a significant signal. Historically, every time this level has been breached, it has been followed by a major correction or an economic recession.

The current ratio is around 1.45, and the monthly chart has not yet confirmed a breakout. However, the trend is clear: gold is strengthening, while the stock market is relatively weakening.

Don't get locked into a single asset.

Cowen's core argument, repeatedly emphasized, is that:Don't marry a particular asset class.

If you hold only stocks and firmly believe that "they will definitely rise in the long run," you may experience a prolonged period of relative depreciation.

If you only hold altcoins and wait for "it's only a matter of time before it's my turn," you might find that moment never comes.

The market will tell you what it is doing. Observe, adjust, and adapt, rather than clinging to your beliefs.

Current market structure

Based on Cowen's analysis, the current market structure indicates:

• Hard assets (gold, cash, government bonds) are strengthening.
• Risky assets (stocks, altcoins, high-yield bonds) are depreciating relatively.

This does not mean to sell all your stocks and buy gold. But it is important to be aware that:We are currently in a period of systemic transition; strategies that were effective in the past may no longer work in the future.

Conclusion

1.45 is not an ordinary number. It echoes 1929, warns like 1973, and rehearses like 2008.

Now it's back again.

Benjamin Cowen did not predict that the market will definitely crash, nor did he say that it is necessary to liquidate all positions. However, he used data to point out that:History has never been gentle at this point.

You can choose to believe "this time is different," or you can choose to respect historical patterns.

You can continue to hold the stocks and wait for the rotation, or reassess your asset allocation.

You can ignore 1.45, or you can take it as a reminder:In financial markets, survival is more important than proving oneself right.

The monthly closing will tell us the answer. Until then, stay alert, stay flexible, and respect the data.

Because the market doesn't care what you want. It only shows what it is.

Data Source:

• Benjamin Cowen YouTube Video "A Deeply Concerning Chart for Stocks"
• Benjamin Cowen YouTube Video "Gold Breaks Out Against Stocks"
• Historical Ratio Data of S&P 500 and Gold
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate data

Disclaimer:This article is based on public data and historical analysis for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice. Financial markets involve risks; investments should be made with caution.

This is Alan Chen. See through trends with data and protect your principal with logic.