Bitcoin BTC$70,964.77held onto gains Monday after an early surge above $70,000, but the rebound’s fate now hinges on what's next between the U.S. and Iran.

The move followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, citing "productive" diplomatic talks.

Iranian officials denied the existence of talks, but markets largely brushed it off, with risk assets holding firm through the session.

Bitcoin hovered just below $71,000 later in the session, up 3.8% over the past 24 hours. Altcoins outperformed, with ether (ETH), solana (SOL) and DOGE$0.09502each gaining around 5%.

Crypto-linked equities also rallied, led by bitcoin miners, which have increasingly traded in line with AI infrastructure plays. Hut 8 (HUT) jumped more than 11%, while Bitfarms (BITF), Cipher Mining (CIFR), CleanSpark (CLSK), Riot Platforms (RIOT) and TeraWulf (WULF) advanced 6%-7%.

Traditional markets joined the move higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing about 1.2% up.

While the temporary pause has eased pressure in energy markets, traders should treat the rebound cautiously in risk assets.

"The macro ceiling has shifted," said Jasper de Maere, OTC trader at Wintermute. "How much room opens up depends on the next five days."

If oil stabilizes and shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalize, he said, inflation concerns could ease, allowing rate-cut expectations to return and removing a key headwind for crypto.

In that scenario, bitcoin could make another run at the $74,000–$76,000 range, the level that has capped rallies in recent weeks, according to de Maere.

A breakdown in talks or renewed disruption to energy supply would have the opposite impact, he said. It would likely push oil higher again, reinforcing inflation risks and sending markets back into risk-off mode that could pull bitcoin back toward the mid-$60,000s.

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